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Democratic sweep sparks a relief rally as Bitcoin squeezes back above $80K

risk-on

Stocks, bonds, gold and crypto all rallied after the US midterms while oil, the dollar and volatility fell, though crypto's weekly trend and Fed hike odds still argue for caution.

Thursday, 05 November 2026 · Ljubljana edition date · Archive

Top stories

  1. CryptoCoinMarketCap shows total market cap at $2.687T (+3.14% in 24h), 24h volume about $87.4B, and Bitcoin dominance at 60.2%. Ethereum led the large caps with +5.4% to about $2,418. A lot of this move was forced buying. Coinglass data cited by BeInCrypto counted $974.8M in liquidations over 24h, 59% of them shorts, and Bitcoin had $396M of those, 78% shorts. Liqwall shows $263M of BTC shorts wiped out versus $12.3M of lo
  2. ETF flowsThe three-day outflow streak (about $1.16B from Oct 30 to Nov 3, per SoSoValue via Coinlab) ended on Nov 4, but the sources disagree on the size. Farside data reported by Blockchain.news and KuCoin puts US spot BTC ETFs at +$74.6M (FBTC +$236.7M, IBIT −$201.2M) and spot ETH ETFs at +$53M. SoSoValue, via Coinlab, shows BTC ETFs at +$35.1M. Farside's own page still showed Nov 4 as blank when it was read, so treat these
  3. Global economyThe Democrats' win was read as less fiscal stimulus and more gridlock. That pushed yields and the dollar lower, and the clearer result removed uncertainty. - **Stocks:** The S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,688.62 and the Nasdaq rose 1.44% to 25,736.51. The Dow gained 3.03%, its best day since April 2025 (CNBC, AP). Energy fell 4.8%, and AI and data-center names also dropped on fears of tighter rules (Reuters via Investing.co
  4. How it fed into cryptoLower oil cools inflation fears, and a softer dollar and lower yields loosen financial conditions. That backdrop lifted every risk asset. Crypto then got extra fuel from short liquidations. Reuters noted Bitcoin up about 3% above $80,000 in its market wrap. Crypto stocks such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy rose about 6% (AntProfit). Markets also largely shrugged off the recent Binance security breach (AntProfit, citin

Market moves

MarketPrice1-day
Bitcoin$75,950-5.65%
Ethereum$2,247-7.57%
Solana$89.28-6.82%
S&P 500$7,380-4.01%
Nasdaq Composite$24,376-5.29%
US Dollar Index$101.45-0.05%
Gold (futures)$4,111+0.94%
WTI crude oil$90.67+2.89%
US 10-year yield4.83%-1.33%

Snapshot sources: CoinGecko, Yahoo Finance · fetched 2026-11-05 19:36 CET

Macro

The Democrats' win was read as less fiscal stimulus and more gridlock. That pushed yields and the dollar lower, and the clearer result removed uncertainty. - Stocks: The S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,688.62 and the Nasdaq rose 1.44% to 25,736.51. The Dow gained 3.03%, its best day since April 2025 (CNBC, AP). Energy fell 4.8%, and AI and data-center names also dropped on fears of tighter rules (Reuters via Investing.com, CappNotes). - Yields: The US 2-year closed at 4.58% (from 4.61%) and the 10-year at 4.90% (from 4.95%) (US Treasury daily yield curve). - Dollar: The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.34% to 101.53, a 5-week low (CappNotes, Barchart). - Gold: Gold rose 3.3% to about $4,070/oz, back above $4,000 and its best day since August (CappNotes, Reuters). Silver gained more than 5%. - Oil: WTI fell 8.29% to $88.12 and Brent fell 8.67% to $94.62 (CappNotes). Traders are betting there will be more pressure to end the Iran war. Reuters says Brent is down nearly 20% this week, which would be the biggest weekly drop since April 2020. - Volatility: The VIX fell 20% to 16.61 (CappNotes). - Data: ADP private payrolls rose 86K, beating the 75K estimate. ISM services slipped to 54.5 versus 54.8 expected, and the September trade deficit narrowed to $105.0B (CappNotes, Barchart). - Central banks: Markets still price about a 77–83% chance of a Fed rate hike at the Dec 8–9 meeting (CME FedWatch via CappNotes, Barchart and Reuters). The Bank of England decides rates today and is expected to make its first hike in over three years. Norway also decides today (Reuters).

Crypto

CoinMarketCap shows total market cap at $2.687T (+3.14% in 24h), 24h volume about $87.4B, and Bitcoin dominance at 60.2%. Ethereum led the large caps with +5.4% to about $2,418. A lot of this move was forced buying. Coinglass data cited by BeInCrypto counted $974.8M in liquidations over 24h, 59% of them shorts, and Bitcoin had $396M of those, 78% shorts. Liqwall shows $263M of BTC shorts wiped out versus $12.3M of longs in the 24h to 06:22 Stockholm time, BTC open interest down 2.4% to $30.6B, and funding mildly positive at about +0.009% per 8 hours. That means longs pay a little, but they aren't crowded. BeInCrypto says Bitcoin had dipped to about $75,700 on Wednesday before rebounding.

Movers

Rank changes (compared with the 2026-11-04 snapshot) - ZEC moved from 10 to 9, and HYPE slipped from 9 to 10. - DOGE moved from 12 to 11, and XMR slipped from 11 to 12. - LINK moved from 14 to 13, and LEO slipped from 13 to 14. - UNI moved from 20 to 19, and USDe slipped from 19 to 20. - SUI moved from 26 to 25, and USD1 slipped from 25 to 26. - No coins entered or left the top 30.

What it means

In plain words: the morning brief reads the mood as risk-on — Stocks, bonds, gold and crypto all rallied after the US midterms while oil, the dollar and volatility fell, though crypto's weekly trend and Fed hike odds still argue for caution..

Looking at the live snapshot: Bitcoin is down about 5.65% on the latest print we fetched; the S&P 500 is down about 4.01% on the latest print we fetched; the dollar (DXY) is down about 0.05% on the latest print we fetched; gold is up about 0.94% on the latest print we fetched.

A risk-on day usually means investors are more willing to buy things that can swing a lot — stocks and crypto — while safer or defensive assets take a back seat. That fits a morning like “Democratic sweep sparks a relief rally as Bitcoin squeezes back above $80K”.

Outlook & projections

Opinion, not financial advice

These are projections based on the evidence above, not certainties.

  • Base case for the next few days: Choppy consolidation around $78K–$82K for Bitcoin. A rally driven mainly by short liquidations often cools once the forced buyers are gone. Open interest falling, a 7d pulse of only 55 and an Alpha Score of 49 all point to range-bound trading rather than a clean breakout. Fear & Greed at 50 leaves room either way.
  • Bull case: Bitcoin holds above $80K, which BeInCrypto notes it has struggled to hold since late October. That would need ETF inflows to keep coming for several days after the $1.16B outflow streak, and Friday's jobs data plus next week's CPI to come in cool enough to lower the roughly 80% December hike odds. If that happens, a move toward the low-to-mid $80Ks over the week looks plausible, with ETH and DeFi likely leading, as they did today.
  • Bear case: A hot payrolls or CPI print firms up the Fed hike and pushes yields and the dollar back up. Or oil rebounds on Iran headlines, or ETF outflows resume. Any of these would likely pull BTC back below $80K, and the Nov 4 intraday low near $75.7K becomes the level to watch. Supply pressure and "weak hands" readings mean dips could be sharp.
  • Key dates: The BoE decision today, US jobs report Nov 6, US CPI Nov 10, US PPI Nov 13, FOMC Dec 9.
  • Policy watch: Possible delays to the CLARITY Act under a divided Washington are a medium-term headwind for US crypto regulation headlines.

Learn: Forced buying and selling (liquidations)

In crypto futures, traders borrow to bet. If price moves against them, the exchange can close the bet automatically — a liquidation. A wave of short liquidations forces buying and can spike price quickly; the reverse can dump it.

Sources

Notes: Nov 4 ETF flow figures differ between Farside-based reports and SoSoValue and may be revised. Fed hike odds vary by source and time of reading (76.9% to 83%).

Live table: CoinGecko, Yahoo Finance. Brief file: /workspace/macro/daily when available.